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中金:内房中短期政策潜在调整或带来一定交易性机会 看好润地及中海外

CICC: Potential adjustments in the short-term policies of the domestic real estate market may bring certain trading opportunities. Bullish on China Resources Land and China Overseas

Breakings ·  Sep 13 15:07

CICC released a report stating that the transaction volume of second-hand houses in August slightly decreased month-on-month, and the decrease in transactions combined with the upward supply resulted in a wider decline in transaction prices compared to July. In terms of transaction volume, the index of second-hand house transactions in 80 cities according to intermediary statistics decreased by 3% month-on-month and narrowed by 39% year-on-year in August; while the index of second-hand house transactions in 15 cities of high frequency decreased by 13% month-on-month and narrowed by 13% year-on-year. In terms of transaction prices, the homogeneity index of second-hand residential sales prices published by CICC decreased by 1.6% month-on-month, with a cumulative price decline of 9.1% from the beginning of the year to the present, which is a 27% cumulative decrease from its peak in June 2021. Meanwhile, the bargaining space for transactions in August increased by 36 basis points month-on-month to 7.71%, showing a wider increase compared to July. The bank points out that the current decline in transaction volume in the real estate market, coupled with the increase in the number of second-hand houses on the market, puts further pressure on housing prices, resulting in a wider decline in second-hand housing prices in August compared to the previous month. In this context, with the current lack of turning points in the operation and performance of real estate developers, it is difficult for the sector to present long-term investment opportunities. However, potential adjustments in short-term policies may still bring certain trading opportunities. For example, the recent increase in policy expectations among investors has led to fluctuations in the bottom of the sector. In the development sector, we are bullish on China Resources Land and China Overseas. In the property management sector, considering that the current valuation levels adequately reflect the business models and potential risks of property enterprises, the compound return of profit growth and dividend yield will become the main basis for selecting stocks in the market. We recommend building positions in companies with medium- to long-term value and being bullish on China Resources MixC, Greentown Service, and Poly Property.

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