BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes deeply analyzed the profound impact of the current Federal Reserve policy and fiscal environment on the market in his latest blog post. He pointed out that despite the Federal Reserve's ongoing efforts to control inflation through continuous rate hikes since 2022, the massive government fiscal expenditures are still the main cause of high inflation. Hayes believes that due to political pressures and election cycles, the government is finding it difficult to significantly reduce expenditures or increase taxes, which will lead to the U.S. economy continuing to linger under the dual pressures of inflation and growth. Faced with this situation, the Federal Reserve may no longer further raise interest rates, and the market itself may adjust interest rate levels to cope with high debt financing costs, potentially pushing the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield back up to 5%, triggering a new round of financial market volatility. Hayes particularly emphasized the significant impact of the current Federal Reserve policy uncertainty on the cryptocurrency market. He pointed out that the price of bitcoin has become one of the most sensitive indicators of U.S. dollar liquidity conditions. The fluctuation of prices of cryptocurrencies like bitcoin between the Federal Reserve's interest rate policy and the Treasury Department's liquidity operations demonstrates a deep interconnection with traditional financial markets. With the possibility of the Federal Reserve cutting rates again in 2024, concerns about U.S. Treasury yields increasing in the market will make investors pay more attention to the impact of U.S. dollar liquidity on cryptocurrency prices. Hayes believes that if rates rise again and market liquidity tightens, bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies may face a new round of price corrections. In addition, Hayes also suggested that U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen may respond to market instability by issuing more short-term Treasury bills (T-bills) and adjusting fiscal policies to increase market liquidity, aiming to prevent the financial system from falling into distress due to rising debt costs. Hayes predicts that these measures will have a significant impact on risk assets, including cryptocurrencies. Once the U.S. Treasury signals an increase in liquidity, the cryptocurrency market may see new opportunities for growth. Especially in the ongoing fluctuation of global central bank policies, cryptocurrencies are likely to become the main choice for investors seeking hedging and safe-haven assets. Hayes emphasizes that although the short-term price of bitcoin may fluctuate due to liquidity tightening, in the long term, with liquidity reintroduced into the market, the bull market for cryptocurrencies is expected to restart. Hayes stated, "My change in perspective keeps my hand hovering over the buy button. I will not sell cryptocurrencies due to short-term put. As I explained, my put is only temporary."