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中金:铜平衡表仍较稳健,铜价“软着陆”可期

CICC: The copper balance sheet is still relatively stable, and a 'soft landing' for copper prices is expected.

Breakings ·  Aug 8 07:54

China International Capital Corporation indicated that after copper prices surged past $11,000/ton, they have since given back more than half of their gains, and the current price of $8,900/ton is only a step away from the $8,500/ton starting point of the market. If the jump in copper prices can be understood as the market's long-term expectations being realized, then the drop in copper prices can be seen as the market's self-correction. Behind the previous rise in copper prices, on the one hand, is the boost from the expectation of a rate cut, which is more important, forcing the market to price today and tomorrow's tight copper supply-demand fundamentals. But in hindsight, copper prices have moved ahead of the fundamentals, with strong signs of negative feedback from demand, indicating that downstream businesses are not prepared to accept record high copper prices. Moreover, as the timing of the rate cut approaches, trading space for interest cuts is scarce but recessionary trading remains abundant, and the copper supply-demand balance sheet may face challenges. However, the oscillation of macroeconomic expectations will not affect our optimistic determination of demand in the electrical utilities and new energy sectors, with the increase in copper consumption brought about by electrification still the main driving force for copper prices to rise. On the other hand, the sustainability of mining-side releases is limited, and the risk of loosening bottom support for copper prices is small. Overall, we believe that the risk of a significant deterioration in the copper balance sheet is relatively small, and if expectations of a recession intensify, this may help copper prices cushion their landing.

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