UBS Group currently expects the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates by 100 basis points this year, higher than the previous forecast of 50 basis points. UBS said in the report that unless the August employment report is strong, UBS believes that the Federal Reserve will begin a loose cycle at the September meeting and cut interest rates by 50 basis points. "Our basic determination is still that the U.S. economy will avoid a recession and that growth will remain close to the trend level of 2%. With interest rates at a 23-year high, the Federal Reserve has enough flexibility to support the economy and markets." UBS emphasized that overall household financial conditions are good, actual income is growing, average debt servicing costs are still low compared to historical averages, and total net wealth has increased by 37% since the start of the epidemic.