According to the CITIC Securities Research Report, the number of new non-farm payrolls added in the US in June 2024 slightly exceeded expectations, and education and health services and government departments were the main contributing industries. The combination of a sharp drop in the number of new non-farm payrolls in April and May, the unemployment rate rising above expectations in June, a slowdown in wage growth, and an increase in the labor force participation rate shows that the cooling process of the US labor market has accelerated. However, judging from various indicators, the current tightness in the US labor market is similar to 2018-2019, and is still tight in the historical cycle. In an environment of high interest rates, it is expected that the US labor market will continue to cool down. The risks on both sides of the economy and inflation are balanced, but the current unemployment rate in the US is still at a historically low level, and it remains to be seen whether inflation will return to a sustainable reduction of 2%. We expect the Federal Reserve to remain biased to control the risk of inflation, not cut interest rates during the year, “trade time for space”, and continue to suppress US demand and inflation.