Guotai Junan International research reports stated that on June 28, 2024, President Biden and former President Trump clashed in their first televised debate. According to subsequent surveys, Trump won the debate. CNN's data shows that about two-thirds of viewers thought Trump performed better. Although televised debates theoretically have the potential to change public opinion, their actual impact should not be overestimated. Historically, televised debates have seldom had a decisive influence on election results. The second (and final) televised debate between the two candidates is scheduled for September 10. The U.S. presidential election is scheduled for November 5, making the coming months a critical time for both sides. Since Trump's economic policies are believed to be more expansionary and thus more likely to boost inflation, his lead in the polls has also pushed the dollar higher. Another issue that the market needs to consider is whether Trump's lead will bring forward election trading. So far, the market doesn't seem to have a specific agenda for early election trading, but the market's enthusiasm has started to heat up after today's presidential debate. Regardless, even taking into account the possibility of early election trading, it seems that greater certainty in the short term still lies with the strong dollar for macro trading purposes.