Goldman Sachs strategist Bill Zu stated that although investors generally believe that a Republican victory in the US election will lead to rising yields and a steeper yield curve, several conflicting forces may challenge this view. Under various election scenarios, the difference in deficit prospects is relatively small, meaning that any supply-driven repricing of yields due to elections will be mild. Assuming that Trump's election brings greater tariff risks, the experience of 2019 shows that the market tends to see tariffs as a negative productivity shock, which will push yields lower and the curve flatter. The risk of a higher inflation starting point and greater one-time impact of tariffs on inflation may limit the ability of the Fed to cut interest rates in the near future. If Trump takes office, any changes in policy to increase the influence of the Federal Reserve may occur after tariff adjustments, which have a more direct impact on inflation and economic growth.