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做空长期美债时机可能到来,财政赤字和特朗普破坏力令人警惕

The opportunity to short long-term US bonds may arise, and the fiscal deficit and Trump's disruptive power are alarming.

Breakings ·  Jun 27 00:17
Investors who predicted six interest rate cuts in January now almost unanimously believe that the Fed will maintain interest rates unchanged for a long time if necessary. But there is a high likelihood of at least one interest rate cut before the end of the year, with the possibility of two. Whatever the final outcome, it is a significant event for the market, and the record two-year yield curve inversion is expected to reverse, putting the bond market on a path to normalization. Thursday (June 27), current President Biden will hold his first presidential candidate debate with his predecessor, Trump, since the election. Risks related to the competition could be a catalyst for stirring up the yield curve and allowing investors who bet on the return of the interest rate structure to normalcy to get rewarded. So far, this bet has not yielded any returns because the Fed has consistently maintained interest rates unchanged. Gargi Chaudhuri, head of iShares investment strategies for BlackRock Americas, said "There will definitely be some volatility in the market before the election."

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