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荷兰国际:市场对英国与美国的利率定价太过接近

ING International: The market prices rates for the United Kingdom and the United States too closely.

Breakings ·  Jun 25 21:56
ING Bank indicated that looking at the forward interest rate curve, UK interest rate pricing is still so close to that of the United States, which is noteworthy. The market believes that the magnitude of the interest rate cuts by the two central banks this year is about 45 basis points, and the final interest rates of the upcoming easing cycle are between 3.30-3.40%. Our view is that with the interest rate cut starting in August, UK interest rates will be repriced to a lower level, leading to the devaluation of the British pound. We will not hear any news from the Bank of England before the general election on July 4. However, afterwards, we will expect more moderate members among the seven who voted to support the interest rate to issue their own voices. The uncertainty of the situation in the euro zone indicates that the euro/British pound may be difficult to break through above 0.8490 in the short term. However, if US interest rates also decline and the Bank of England adopts a dovish attitude in July, then cross-rates such as British pound / Norwegian krone may fall next month.

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