HTSC issued a research report stating that since late May, the market's expectations for US growth and inflation are no longer rising, while these trends continue and deepen into June. Compared with a year ago, even three months ago, the constraints on the Fed's rate cuts from economic data have decreased, and the marginal necessity has increased. At the high frequency data level, if short-term inflation does not appear repeatedly, labor data is the only uncertain factor. However, the team expects that non-farm employment data is likely to accelerate its decline within three months. HTSC maintains its previous view that the Fed may still start a rate cut cycle this year. However, in the medium and long term, the necessity and possibility of continuous rate cuts in the United States are both lower, and the endpoint of rate cuts may be higher than the Fed's current guideline (2.8%).