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广发证券:需求季节性增长 煤价或延续稳中有升趋势

GF Sec: Seasonal growth in demand, coal prices may continue to rise steadily.

Breakings ·  Jun 20 08:24
According to the research report of GF Securities, with low supply and the arrival of peak summer demand, the supply and demand may become slightly imbalanced. (1) Thermal coal: According to Wind, since mid-April, the price of thermal coal has stabilized and rebounded. Since June, the high temperature in northern China has continued, while the rainy weather in the south has suppressed the demand for coal. However, the daily consumption of power plants began to increase last week. It is expected that as the temperature continues to rise in the later period, the daily consumption will continue to increase, and the supply and demand may become slightly imbalanced. The coal price is expected to be stable and upward. (2) Coking coal: Since June, the main prices of coking coal in ports and production areas have fallen slightly. Although terminal demand will enter the seasonal off-season, supply-side constraints still exist. At the same time, the low inventory level of coke in various links further supports the coal price. With the landing of various policies in the second half of the year, the coking coal price has the elasticity to rise. The sector may benefit from the gradual stabilization and rebound of coal prices. It is expected that with the increase of seasonal demand and the improvement of macro expectations, both power and non-power demand have room for improvement. In addition, the safe production standards in production areas are maintained on a regular basis, and the coal price may continue to stabilize and rise. Production of various companies in the second quarter is expected to steadily increase, especially in regions such as Shanxi and Henan, and performance is expected to steadily improve.

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