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中国银河证券:下半年LPR可能有20-40BP,MLF10-20BP的调降空间

China Galaxy Securities: There may be a 20-40 basis points decrease in LPR and a 10-20 basis points decrease in MLF in the second half of the year.

Breakings ·  Jun 17 10:59
Chief Economist and Dean of the Research Institute of China Galaxy Securities, Chapter Jun and other research reports stated that the inflection point of social financing growth may have arrived, and it will steadily rise to 8.7% in the third quarter, but it will slightly fall back to 8.3% in the fourth quarter. The central bank has made the judgment that 'credit growth has transformed from supply constraints to demand constraints', and the annual loan growth rate should not be excessively expected. The credit growth rate may stabilize in the third quarter, with an annual growth of 8.8%. M2's annual growth rate still faces downward pressure in the second quarter, and it will continue to rise in the third quarter, with an annual growth rate of 7.8%. In the context of revitalizing stock and preventing capital from turning idle, M2's satisfactory growth rate cannot be simply derived from credit, that is, internal monetary realization. It also needs to form a joint force with fiscal policy and increase net fiscal expenditure, that is, external monetary assistance. Under the balance of monetary policy multiple targets, the central bank may adopt 'different' interest rate cuts and forward-looking reserve requirement cuts. There may be a 20-40 basis points decrease in LPR and a 10-20 basis points decrease in MLF in the second half of the year, and forward-looking reserve requirement cut of 50 basis points in the third quarter. If PSL is restarted, the interest rate of PSL may be reduced by 25-30 basis points.

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