The CICC Research Report points out that small businesses in the US have had a significant impact on employment, but they have not received much attention. The interest rate cut cycle, which has been repeatedly postponed, may be suppressing small business operations, thereby cooling the job market. Federal Reserve Governor Waller said in a speech on May 22, “If the data for the next three to five months continues to weaken, the Federal Reserve may consider cutting interest rates by the end of 2024.” We believe that small business difficulties may be an important factor contributing to the marginal weakening of economic data, which in turn will trigger interest rate cuts. However, when the dynamic energy within the economy is still strong, interest rate cuts will be more likely to be “shallow interest rate cuts,” showing characteristics of careful fine-tuning, gradual, and preventive measures. The impact on terminal demand and corporate profits will probably be greater than the impact on asset valuation.
中金：小企业经营困难或将是经济走软的重要因素，进而触发美联储降息
CICC: Difficulties in small business operations may be an important factor in the weakening economy, which in turn will trigger the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates
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