Adds EIA Storage Report, Latest Prices
By Scott Disavino
May 23 (Reuters) - U.S. Natural Gas Futures Slid About 2% on Thursday From a Four-Month High in the Prior Session on Signs Recent High Prices Have Prompted an Increase in Production.
That Price Decline Came Despite a Federal Report Showing the Amount of Gas Injected Into Storage Last Week Was Lower Than Expected. Traders Said Storage Builds Have Been Lower Than Usual Over the Past Four Weeks Despite Mostly Mild Weather That Kept Heating and Cooling Demand Low Due to Output Cuts in Recent Months.
The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Said Utilities Added 78 Billion Cubic Feet (Bcf) of Gas Into Storage During the Week Ended May 17.
THat Was Lower Than the 85-Bcf Build Analysts Forecast in a Reuters Poll and Compares With an Increase of 97 Bcf in the Same Week Last Year and a Five-Year (2019-2023) Average Rise of 91 Bcf for This Time of Year. EIA/Gas Ngas/Poll
THat Build Left Gas Stockpiles About 29% Above Normal Levels for This Time of Year.
Front-Month Gas Futures Ngc1 for June Delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange Fell 6.4 Cents, or 2.3%, to $2.778 per Million British Thermal Units (Mmbtu) at 10:35 A.m. Edt (1435 Gmt). on Wednesday, the Contract Closed at Its Highest Since Jan. 17.
Despite the Decline, the Front-Month Remained in Technically Overbought Territory for a 15TH Day in a Row for the First Time Since June 2016.
In Other News, Power Use in Texas Was on Track to Break the Record for the Month of May for a Second Time This Week on Friday and Could Top That Again Over the Memorial Day Weekend as Homes and Businesses Crank up Their Air Conditioners to Escape a Heat Wave.
In the Spot Market, Next-Day Power at the Palo Verde Hub El-Pk-Plvd-Snl in Arizona and South Path-15 (SP-15) El-Pk-SP15-Snl in Southern California Remained in Negative Territory for a Second Day This Week.
U.S. Next-Day Power and Gas Prices Have Turned Negative Several Times Already in 2024, Especially in Texas, Arizona and California. Prices at Palo Verde Have Averaged Below Zero 16 Times so Far This Year Versus Just Once in the Past in 2019. SP-15 Prices, Which Never Averaged Below Zero Before This Year, Have Already Hit That Mark 13 Times.
Supply and Demand
Financial Firm Lseg Said Gas Output in the Lower 48 U.S. States Fell to an Average of 97.4 Billion Cubic Feet per Day (Bcfd) so Far in May, Down From 98.2 Bcfd in April. That Compares With a Monthly Record of 105.5 Bcfd in December 2023.
On a Daily Basis, However, Output Was up About 0.9 Bcfd Since Hitting a 15-Week Low of 96.2 Bcfd on May 1. Energy Traders Said That Increase Was a Sign That the 63% Gain in Futures Prices Over the Past Three Weeks Prompted Some Drillers to Start Producing More Gas.
Overall, U.S. Gas Production Was Down Around 8% so Far in 2024 After Several Energy Firms, Including EQT Eqt.n and Chesapeake Energy Chk.o, Delayed Well Completions and Cut Back on Other Drilling Activities After Prices Fell to 3-1/2-Year Lows in February and March.
EQT Is the Biggest U.S. Gas Producer and Chesapeake Is on Track to Become the Biggest Producer After Its Merger With Southwestern Energy Swn.n.
Lseg Forecast Gas Demand in the Lower 48, Including Exports, Would Ease From 92.5 Bcfd This Week to 91.6 Next Week.
Gas Flows to the Seven Big U.S. LNG Export Plants Rose From an Average of 11.9 Bcfd in April to 12.7 Bcfd so Far in May With the Return of Freeport Lng's 2.1-Bcfd Plant in Texas. That Compares With a Monthly Record of 14.7 Bcfd in December.
| Week Ended May 17 Actual | Week Ended May 10 Actual | Year Ago May 17 | Five-Year Average May 17 |
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U.S. Weekly Natgas Storage Change (Bcf): | +78 | +70 | +97 | +92 | |
U.S. Total Natgas in Storage (Bcf): | 2,711 | 2,633 | 2,309 | 2,105 | |
U.S. Total Storage Versus 5-Year Average | 28.8% | 30.8% |
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Global Gas Benchmark Futures ($ per Mmbtu) | Current Day | Prior Day | This Month Last Year | Prior Year Average 2023 | Five-Year Average (2018-2022) |
Henry Hub Ngc1 | 2.83 | 2.84 | 2.30 | 2.66 | 3.60 |
Title Transfer Facility (Ttf) Trnlttfmc1 | 11.38 | 11.03 | 9.97 | 13.04 | 14.39 |
Japan Korea Marker (Jkm) Jkmc1 | 11.98 | 11.83 | 10.45 | 14.39 | 14.31 |
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Lseg Heating (Hdd), Cooling (Cdd) and Total (Tdd) Degree Days |
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Two-Week Total Forecast | Current Day | Prior Day | Prior Year | 10-Year Norm | 30-Year Norm |
U.S. Gfs Hdds | 19 | 20 | 27 | 39 | 36 |
U.S. Gfs Cdds | 136 | 133 | 91 | 107 | 112 |
U.S. Gfs Tdds | 155 | 153 | 118 | 146 | 148 |
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Lseg U.S. Weekly Gfs Supply and Demand Forecasts |
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| Prior Week | Current Week | Next Week | This Week Last Year | Five-Year (2019-2023) Average for Month |
U.S. Supply (Bcfd) |
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U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production | 97.5 | 97.7 | 97.7 | 102.6 | 94.4 |
U.S. Imports From Canada | 7.1 | 754 | 7.0 | 7.4 | 7.5 |
U.S. LNG Imports | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Total U.S. Supply | 104.6 | 105.1 | 104.7 | 110.0 | 101.9 |
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U.S. Demand (Bcfd) |
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U.S. Exports to Canada | 1.8 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 2.6 | 2.4 |
U.S. Exports to Mexico | 6.6 | 7.1 | 6.7 | 6.1 | 5.6 |
U.S. LNG Exports | 12.8 | 13.0 | 13.0 | 12.8 | 8.8 |
U.S. Commercial | 5.2 | 4.7 | 4.7 | 4.9 | 5.8 |
U.S. Residential | 5.0 | 4.2 | 4.2 | 4.5 | 6.9 |
U.S. Power Plant | 32.3 | 33.3 | 32.8 | 32.1 | 28.4 |
U.S. Industrial | 21.7 | 21.6 | 21.5 | 21.3 | 21.5 |
U.S. Plant Fuel | 4.8 | 4.8 | 4.8 | 4.8 | 4.8 |
U.S. Pipe Distribution | 1.9 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 1.9 |
U.S. Vehicle Fuel | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
Total U.S. Consumption | 71.1 | 707 | 70.1 | 69.6 | 69.4 |
Total U.S. Demand | 92.3 | 92.5 | 91.6 | 91.1 | 86.2 |
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U.S. Northwest River Forecast Center (Nwrfc) at the Dalles Dam | Current Day % of Normal Forecast | Prior Day % of Normal Forecast | 2023 % of Normal Actual | 2022 % of Normal Actual | 2021 % of Normal Actual |
Apr-SEP | 79 | 81 | 83 | 107 | 81 |
Jan-Jul | 79 | 81 | 77 | 102 | 79 |
Oct-SEP | 81 | 82 | 76 | 103 | 81 |
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U.S. Weekly Power Generation Percent by Fuel - EIA |
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| Week Ended May 24 | Week Ended May 17 | Week Ended May 10 | Week Ended May 3 | Week Ended Apr 26 |
Wind | 13 | 10 | 13 | 14 | 16 |
Solar | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 |
Hydro | 8 | 8 | 7 | 7 | 7 |
Other | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
Petroleum | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Natural Gas | 38 | 40 | 41 | 40 | 37 |
Coal | 14 | 14 | 14 | 13 | 13 |
Nuclear | 20 | 20 | 19 | 19 | 19 |
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Snl U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per Mmbtu) |
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Hub | Current Day | Prior Day |
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Henry Hub Ng-W-Hh-Snl | 2.51 | 2.52 |
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Transco Z6 New York Ng-CG-NY-Snl | 1.99 | 1.97 |
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PG&E Citygate Ng-CG-Pge-Snl | 1.88 | 2.00 |
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Eastern Gas (Old Dominion South) Ng-Pcn-App-Snl | 1.76 | 1.75 |
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Chicago Citygate Ng-CG-CH-Snl | 1.84 | 1.94 |
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Algonquin Citygate Ng-CG-Bs-Snl | 2.03 | 2.05 |
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Socal Citygate Ng-Scl-Cgt-Snl | 1.18 | 1.50 |
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Waha Hub Ng-Wah-Wtx-Snl | 1.05 | 0.19 | |||
Aeco Ng-Ash-Alb-Snl | 0.94 | 0.94 |
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Snl U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per Megawatt-Hour) |
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Hub | Current Day | Prior Day |
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New England El-Pk-Npms-Snl | 42.50 | 38.25 |
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Pjm West El-Pk-Pjmw-Snl | 53.50 | 69.50 |
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ERCOT North El-Pk-Ertn-Snl | 21.25 | 29.75 |
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Mid C El-Pk-Midc-Snl | 18.75 | 13.50 | |||
Palo Verde El-Pk-Plvd-Snl | -6.25 | -2.25 |
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SP-15 El-Pk-SP15-Snl | -6.50 | -4.50 |
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(Reporting by Scott Disavino;
Editing by Alison Williams and Marguerita Choy)
((Scott.disavino@Thomsonreuters.com; +1 332 219 1922; Reuters Messaging: Scott.disavino.thomsonreuters.com@Reuters.net))
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For Next-Day Snl U.S. Gas Prices, See: 0#Snl-Ng
For Next-Day Snl U.S. Power Prices, See: 0#Snl-Pwr
For U.S. Natgas Price and Storage Polls, See: Ngas/Poll
For U.S. Nuclear Power Outages, See: Nuke/
For U.S. Northwest Hydro Power Report, See: Nwrfc
For U.S./Canada Natural Gas Rig Count Vs Henry Hub Futures Price, See: Http://Tmsnrt.rs/2Et9K44
For the U.S. Natural Gas Speed Guide, See: Usgas
For the U.S. Power Speed Guide, See: Uspower
To Determine Cftc Managed Money Net Position Add (Nymex Henry Hub Options and Futures Combined 3023651Mnet) Plus (Ice Henry Hub Options and Futures Combined 3023391Mnet Divided by Four) Plus (Nymex Henry Hub Swaps Options and Futures Combined 303565Bmnet Divided by Four) Plus (Nymex Henry Hub Penultimate Gas Swaps 303565Cmnet Divided by Four)
Nymex Henry Hub Options and Futures Combined 0#3Cftc023651
Nymex Henry Hub Futures Only 0#1Cftc023651
Ice Henry Hub Options and Futures Combined 0#3Cftc023391
Nymex Henry Hub Swaps Options and Futures Combined 0#3Cftc03565B
Nymex Henry Hub Penultimate Gas Swaps 0#3Cftc03565C