According to the CITIC Securities Research Report, the average price of Brent crude oil futures was 82 US dollars/barrel in 2024Q1 due to OPEC+ crude oil production cuts of 2 million barrels per day, and the average price of Brent crude oil futures was 82 US dollars/barrel. We believe we still need to pay close attention to these two major disruptions throughout 2024. According to reports on April 3, the OPEC+ organization confirmed that it will continue to maintain its production reduction strategy until the end of June. There was no significant increase in US production, global demand maintained steady expectations, supply-side production cuts exacerbated the contradiction between global crude oil supply and demand, and the oil supply center moved further upward to 85-90 US dollars/barrel. Currently, OECD commercial oil inventories are still at a low level for nearly ten years. Whether OPEC+ will maintain production cuts in the second half of the year is a key disruptor. At the same time, with the arrival of the peak demand season in June, if the gap between supply and demand increases significantly, it will further push up oil prices. On the basis of low inventories, frequently disrupted geographical events will dominate the direction of oil price fluctuations. Since mid-April, the escalation of the Middle East conflict has further boosted oil distribution to 92 US dollars/barrel. If local geopolitical shocks intensify, oil prices are expected to fluctuate upward. In summary, looking ahead to 2024Q2 and the second half of the year, we believe that the scale of production cuts is expected to continue, the peak demand season is approaching, and local geographical disturbances will still be frequent. The oil supply center will fluctuate at a high level of 90 US dollars/barrel, and keep a close eye on the direction of oil price fluctuations dominated by geography.