Societe Generale Securities released a research report saying that several nominal indicators show that the Japanese economy seems to have come out of the “lost 30 years,” yet judging from the actual growth rate, the Japanese economy fell into negative growth in the third quarter of 2023. The bank's judgment: 1) Stock market: Valuation is already at a high level, and profit support has softened, but the East China Stock Exchange reform has softened; 2) bond market: normalization of monetary policy is expected to impact Japanese bonds, but will also benefit from improved liquidity brought about by the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut; 3) Spillover: earnings from yen arbitrage transactions have narrowed sharply in 2023. Be wary of changes in monetary policy triggering capital return and affecting the US bond market.